Chief Prognosticator » You Can’t Predict the Future!
You Can’t Predict the Future!
Crazy thing for the Chief Prognosticator to say, but that’s the statement made by the popular book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
When Taleb looked at the accuracy that “experts” had in making predictions, he found that they were usually no better than the average person at getting it right. That’s amazing. A 2 year prediction? Forget about it?
Oh, p.s. — There a Kimble edition of this great book too.
2 Comments
1. Karen (1 comments.) replies at 23rd December 2007, 2:29 am :
You made me look up prognosticator in the dictionary! All this time of reading your blog, I thought it said procrastinator. I skim too much!
2. Satish (1 comments.) replies at 3rd January 2008, 5:39 am :
Yep…I just looked it up too! Jason, you must be an expert at prediction..love the content!
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